Weekly market wrap
![Two people looking at paperwork and iPad](/sites/default/files/styles/article_page_hero_image/public/acquiadam/2022-07/iStock-1163330465.jpg.webp?itok=yIMI-uKP)
August swings: From a fierce start to a tame finish
Key takeaways:
- Stocks have staged an impressive recovery since the near 10% correction in early August, supported by a still expanding economy, positive earnings growth, and a Fed that is ready to ease.
- Lofty expectations are a headwind for the tech heavyweights, which relinquished leadership last month. At the same time, the broadening earnings growth is helping the laggards make a comeback, as the recent volatility worked to their advantage.
- With inflation heading closer to target, the focus is shifting to growth for both investors and the Fed. While the Fed has a long history of policy mistakes, this time it’s about to embark on a multiyear rate-cutting cycle while growth remains resilient.
- The next two-month stretch leading to the November election day has historically been seasonally challenging for stocks. If volatility reemerges, we will lean into it. Historically, the start of a rate-cutting cycle is positive for stocks when the economy is not in a recession.
The market action in August was like a blockbuster summer action movie – packed with suspense and unexpected twists, keeping investors on the edge of their seats, but ultimately wrapping up with a satisfying, upbeat finale. Stocks ended at or near record highs depending on the index, but not before first going through a near 10% correction.1 To frame the August swings, we examine what's changed, what hasn't, and what the evolving conditions may mean for the road ahead.
1. What's changed? Tech is losing some of its mojo, as comparisons get tougher and valuations are full
Last week all eyes were on NVIDIA, the clear leader in AI development, and the excitement it has generated. Often referred to in financial media as the most important stock in the world, NVIDIA represents over 6% of the S&P 500 and has a market capitalization of $3.1 trillion, second only to Apple1. Given the stock's significant influence on the index and its 150% rally this year, the company's quarterly earnings report was one the most anticipated releases of this earnings season1.
For all the excitement, NVIDIA's results did not change the market narrative, nor did it trigger a big reaction across the tech sector. But the results highlighted a headwind that the mega-cap tech winners face: that of lofty expectations. NVIDIA exceeded consensus estimates on second-quarter sales, earnings, and third-quarter guidance, but it did so without blowing them away to the same extent that it had in prior quarters.
While on a league of its own, the 122% sales growth is smaller than last quarter's 262% growth, and similarly, the 5% upside earnings surprise is smaller than last quarter's 9% surprise2. Because of tough comparisons from a year ago and the law of large numbers, we believe growth will inevitably slow in quarters ahead for NVIDIA, and more broadly, for the Magnificent 7 companies that have led this year's gains. This deceleration, together with elevated valuations, implies that the market heavyweights could spend some time catching their breath and possibly take the back seat for a change.
- What hasn't changed? Demand for AI remains robust
While the solid results failed to impress, the fundamental story around AI remains unchanged. Cloud providers and other big tech companies continue to spend heavily on this technology, with demand outstripping supply. Only time will tell whether companies will reap the benefits of their investments, but for now the perception is that the missed opportunities for innovation and the cost of not investing in AI is greater than the cost of investing.
![This chart shows Nvidia's quarterly sales growth and earnings surprise.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-CA-Chart1.png.webp?itok=zrVtXuB-)
The graph shows Nvidia's quarterly sales growth and earnings surprise. While results remain solid, the rate of growth is downshifting. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
![This chart shows Nvidia's quarterly sales growth and earnings surprise.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-CA-Chart1.png.webp?itok=zrVtXuB-)
The graph shows Nvidia's quarterly sales growth and earnings surprise. While results remain solid, the rate of growth is downshifting. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
2. What's changed? Broadening earnings growth is helping laggards make a comeback
The vigorous rebound in stocks after the near 10% correction was enough to more than wipe out the losses, producing a small gain for most major indexes in August. But unlike the first half of the year, a broader range of sectors and stocks are now driving the rally, indicating a gradual shift in market leadership that we've been anticipating. While the S&P 500 has yet to hit a new high after the early August pullback, the equal-weight index has reached new highs, indicating that the market volatility has worked to the advantage of the "average" stock.
Supporting the theme of broadening, S&P 500 earnings growth excluding the Magnificent 7 stocks was positive for the first time in five quarters. Nine of the 11 sectors had positive growth, with the biggest upside surprises coming from financials, health care and utilities, in addition to tech1. We think the improving earnings trends beyond the mega-cap tech will lead to more balanced gains in the last four months of the year.
- What hasn't changed? Corporate profits are looking up
With 99% of the S&P 500 companies having already reported results, the second-quarter earnings season is largely complete. An above-average 80% of the companies have exceeded analyst estimates by 5.2%, with the index earnings growing 11.4%, a notable acceleration from the first quarter. Importantly, the full-year 2024 and 2025 earnings estimates still point to 10%+ growth for each of the two years2. The upshot is that corporate profits remain on solid ground, providing ongoing support to the bull market despite periodic shifts in investor sentiment.
![This chart shows S&P 500 sector returns.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-Chart2.png.webp?itok=DIbPlAH3)
The graph shows S&P 500 sector returns. Leadership broadened out in August with growth sectors lagging. Past performance does not guarantee future results
![This chart shows S&P 500 sector returns.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-Chart2.png.webp?itok=DIbPlAH3)
The graph shows S&P 500 sector returns. Leadership broadened out in August with growth sectors lagging. Past performance does not guarantee future results
3. What's changed? Fed offered the clearest signal yet that rate cuts are imminent.
Arguably the biggest macroeconomic development in August was the Fed's message at the annual Jackson Hole symposium that "the time has come for policy to adjust." After 16 months of rate increases and 13 months of holding rates in restrictive territory, policymakers are now prepping the ground for the first rate cut of this cycle in a couple of weeks when the Fed meets on September 181.
With inflation making further progress toward the 2% target, policymakers have become more sensitive to achieving the second part of their dual mandate, which is maximum employment. As they seek to engineer a soft landing, the gradual cooling of the labor market is raising some flags. While the mission is not yet accomplished on the price-stability front, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), increased 0.2% from June, the third mild increase in a row, leaving the annual pace unchanged at 2.6%1.
- What hasn't changed? Markets are moving ahead of the Fed
Like in early 2022 when the market sniffed out what was coming and yields spiked even before the Fed started hiking rates, bond yields have taken a dive over the past two months in anticipation of the upcoming rate-cutting cycle. As a result, more of the debate now is about how fast and how far instead of the direction of travel. Bond futures price in a 1% reduction in the Fed policy rate by year-end, followed by a 1.2% drop in 2025, implying nine rate cuts and a near 3% fed funds rate, down from 5.5% currently1. No doubt these expectations will fluctuate based on the incoming inflation and employment data, but the key takeaway is that Fed policy will start turning less restrictive, easing a source of anxiety for investors.
![The graph shows that 2-year Treasury yields and the average 30-year mortgage rate tend to move ahead of the Fed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-Chart3.png.webp?itok=9q_U2F0e)
The graph shows that 2-year Treasury yields and the average 30-year mortgage rate tend to move ahead of the Fed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
![The graph shows that 2-year Treasury yields and the average 30-year mortgage rate tend to move ahead of the Fed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-Chart3.png.webp?itok=9q_U2F0e)
The graph shows that 2-year Treasury yields and the average 30-year mortgage rate tend to move ahead of the Fed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
4. What's changed? Focus started to shift from inflation to growth
Up until recently, economic data was mainly interpreted and viewed through the lens of what it means for the Fed. Good news for the economy could be bad news for the market. And vice versa, bad news for the economy could be good news for the markets because it would imply that inflation will cool further, leading the Fed to cut rates and yields to drop. But as inflation is now in the neighborhood of 2% and the Fed has made its intentions clear, we are back to bad news being bad news. Exemplifying this point, the soft July jobs report was a key reason behind the recession fears that triggered the biggest pullback in stocks this year.
- What hasn't changed? Despite soft-landing doubts, consumers remain resilient
During the spike in volatility in early August, our view was that the growth worries were overblown, and that the economic expansion appeared poised to continue. Since then, a string of solid data (jobless claims, retail sales, services PMI, inflation-adjusted consumer spending) have once again shifted the narrative back to a soft landing as the base-case scenario, with the recession worries fading as quickly as they appeared. Last week's second-quarter GDP revision highlighted that the economy not only hasn't been contracting, but it has been growing at an above-trend pace. Growth was revised to 3% annualized from 2.8%, driven by strong consumption growth1.
While the Fed has a long history of policy mistakes, this time it’s about to embark on a multiyear rate-cutting cycle while growth remains resilient (though slowing), credit conditions are easing, and the labor market is still adding jobs. This suggests to us that a soft landing remains the most likely outcome.
![This chart shows GDP growth, inflation and unemployment at the time of the first rate cut going back to 1974.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-Chart4.png.webp?itok=aZXJ94Ji)
The table shows GDP growth, inflation and unemployment at the time of the first rate cut going back to 1974. Forward 12-month returns have been strong if the economy is not in a recession. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
![This chart shows GDP growth, inflation and unemployment at the time of the first rate cut going back to 1974.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-Chart4.png.webp?itok=aZXJ94Ji)
The table shows GDP growth, inflation and unemployment at the time of the first rate cut going back to 1974. Forward 12-month returns have been strong if the economy is not in a recession. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Preparing for the change in seasons
- The market is wrapping up the summer on a firmer footing near all-time highs, helped by a growing economy and corporate profits, lower bonds yields, and expectations of easier Fed policy. However, we wouldn't sound the "all-clear" regarding market volatility, as the next two-month stretch that will lead us to the November election day has historically been seasonally challenging for stocks, with bigger daily fluctuations and lower returns. The potential for volatility to reemerge highlights the importance of investment discipline and appropriate diversification across asset classes, styles and sectors, especially as the August round trip hinted that subtle leadership shifts are underway.
![This chart shows that S&P 500 volatility tends to pick up in September and October.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-CA-Chart5.png.webp?itok=PWqyKodz)
The graph shows that S&P 500 volatility tends to pick up in September and October.
![This chart shows that S&P 500 volatility tends to pick up in September and October.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-CA-Chart5.png.webp?itok=PWqyKodz)
The graph shows that S&P 500 volatility tends to pick up in September and October.
- Beyond seasonality, which doesn't leave a lasting mark on performance, we think the upcoming shift in Fed policy has important implications. While rate cuts are not a panacea, the gradual easing in borrowing costs should help support consumer and business spending. From a market perspective, the start of a rate-cutting cycle that coincides with no recession has historically led to strong equity returns 12 months after the first rate cut. And in the fixed-income space, the lower path of policy rates has led to consistently positive investment-grade bond returns, while highlighting the reinvestment risk of short-term cash investments.
![This chart shows the path of the S&P 500 after the first rate cut of the past nine easing cycles](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-CA-Chart6.png.webp?itok=-rIEaJEt)
The graph shows the path of the S&P 500 after the first rate cut of the past nine easing cycles which tends to diverge based on whether the economy is in a recession or not. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
![This chart shows the path of the S&P 500 after the first rate cut of the past nine easing cycles](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-CA-Chart6.png.webp?itok=-rIEaJEt)
The graph shows the path of the S&P 500 after the first rate cut of the past nine easing cycles which tends to diverge based on whether the economy is in a recession or not. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
![Chart showing Investment grade bonds have risen every time 12 months after the first Fed rate cut all the way back to 1989.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-Chart7.png.webp?itok=-CXB1khE)
Investment grade bonds have risen every time 12 months after the first Fed rate cut going back to 1980. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
![Chart showing Investment grade bonds have risen every time 12 months after the first Fed rate cut all the way back to 1989.](/sites/default/files/styles/chart_image/public/acquiadam/2024-08/8-30-2024-US-Chart7.png.webp?itok=-CXB1khE)
Investment grade bonds have risen every time 12 months after the first Fed rate cut going back to 1980. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Angelo Kourkafas, CFA
Investment Strategist
Source: 1. Bloomberg 2. FactSet
Weekly market stats
INDEX | CLOSE | WEEK | YTD |
---|---|---|---|
Dow Jones Industrial Average | 41,563 | 0.9% | 10.3% |
S&P 500 Index | 5,648 | 0.2% | 18.4% |
NASDAQ | 17,714 | -0.9% | 18.0% |
MSCI EAFE* | 2,448 | 0.3% | 9.5% |
10-yr Treasury Yield | 3.91% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Oil ($/bbl) | $73.61 | -1.6% | 2.7% |
Bonds | $100.25 | -0.5% | 3.3% |
Source: FactSet, 8/30/2024. Bonds represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF. Past performance does not guarantee future results. *4-day performance ending on Thursday.
The week ahead
Important economic releases this week include the ISM Manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls report for August.
Review last week's weekly market update.
Angelo Kourkafas
Angelo Kourkafas is responsible for analyzing market conditions, assessing economic trends and developing portfolio strategies and recommendations that help investors work toward their long-term financial goals.
He is a contributor to Edward Jones Market Insights and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, FORTUNE magazine, Marketwatch, U.S. News & World Report, The Observer and the Financial Post.
Angelo graduated magna cum laude with a bachelor’s degree in business administration from Athens University of Economics and Business in Greece and received an MBA with concentrations in finance and investments from Minnesota State University.
Important Information:
The Weekly Market Update is published every Friday, after market close.
This is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as specific investment advice. Investors should make investment decisions based on their unique investment objectives and financial situation. While the information is believed to be accurate, it is not guaranteed and is subject to change without notice.
Investors should understand the risks involved in owning investments, including interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk. The value of investments fluctuates and investors can lose some or all of their principal.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Market indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly and are not meant to depict an actual investment.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
Systematic investing does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.
Dividends may be increased, decreased or eliminated at any time without notice.
Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign political and economic events.
Before investing in bonds, you should understand the risks involved, including credit risk and market risk. Bond investments are also subject to interest rate risk such that when interest rates rise, the prices of bonds can decrease, and the investor can lose principal value if the investment is sold prior to maturity.