Weekly market wrap

Focusing on what’s known amid trade uncertainty

Key Takeaways: 

• Newly announced tariffs and inflation worries continue to drive market volatility as the first quarter wraps up. A 25% tariff on all non-U.S. made autos was unveiled ahead of a broader announcement of reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2.
• The April 2 announcement will provide some clarity around tariffs, but uncertainty may stay elevated as other countries retaliate or negotiate in the weeks ahead.
• The U.S. economy is less reliant on trade, but tariffs will still act as a drag to economic growth and push goods inflation higher. However, we don’t expect tariffs to derail the expansion.
• Corporate profits are rising, the private sector continues to add jobs at a healthy pace, the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach but not looking to hike interest rates, and policy agenda may soon shift to pro-growth measures.
• With so many potential outcomes, a V-shaped rebound in stocks is less likely. We recommend balance between growth and value investments and see opportunities in health care and financials, which are less exposed to tariff uncertainty and have attractive valuations. Financials may also benefit from potential pro-growth policies.

Tariffs and trade policy remain front and center as the U.S. administration announced a 25% tariff on all autos not made in the U.S. This move comes ahead of a highly anticipated April 2 announcement that should outline a framework for imposing reciprocal tariffs on a country-by-country basis. While the upcoming announcement may provide some much-needed clarity for businesses making capital spending decisions, uncertainty is likely to remain elevated as other countries respond and negotiations intensify. At this stage, the scope, magnitude, timing and persistence of tariffs remain unknown. However, for investors, maintaining a focus on what’s known can be a helpful guide to navigate the headline and market volatility.

What’s new? 25% auto tariffs announced

Last week, President Trump signed an executive order placing tariffs on auto imports to the U.S. The tariffs take effect April 3 and target fully assembled vehicles, but will expand to include auto parts by May 3. The announcement weighed on shares of automakers and parts suppliers, as well as the stock markets of countries with large auto exposure such as Germany and South Korea. (The auto sector represents 7% of the German DAX vs. 2% of the S&P 500.)¹

It remains to be seen whether these tariffs will be permanent, as the president indicated, or can be negotiated away. If they remain in place, they can incentivize foreign manufacturers to move production to the U.S. and boost domestic investment, but that would be a multiyear process. In the near term, auto tariffs will likely lead to higher prices for consumers as automakers pass along some of the additional cost.

Given that about half of the 16 million cars sold last year in the U.S. were imported, the sector will experience a disruption.¹ And there could potentially be knock-on effects, such as higher prices for used cars, repairs and insurance. Consistent with this line of thinking, rental car stocks jumped last week on the view that tariffs will bolster the value of their fleets as these companies eventually sell their used vehicles.¹

What’s coming? Reciprocal and other sector-specific tariffs

The auto tariffs were unveiled ahead of a broader announcement of reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, aiming to raise levies to match those of other countries. The tariffs would apply on a country-by-country basis and may include other non-tariff barriers such as value-added taxes (VATs) into the calculation. The idea is to level the playing field by charging trading partners what they charge the U.S., which would likely hit harder for some of the emerging-market nations.

A reciprocal policy suggests that some countries with low barriers for U.S. products may be exempt or receive reductions, which is a softer approach than the universal tariffs initially proposed. Separately, the administration has suggested that additional product-specific tariffs, including lumber and pharma, would be coming soon.

Uncertainty could soon peak but not go away

As the adage goes, markets hate uncertainty, and right now there is plenty of it. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which tracks how many financial articles mention the words “economic uncertainty” and looks at any divergence in economic forecasts, is at its highest since the early days of the pandemic.¹ Given this backdrop, it is not surprising that investors are having a hard time assessing the impact of a moving target as trade headlines change.

The April 2 announcement will help provide some clarity and transparency in the administration’s approach, but may not answer all of investors’ questions. In response to the reciprocal tariffs, some countries may choose to retaliate, while others may try to negotiate, and this process may play out over several months. Nonetheless, developments during the second quarter may help clear out some of the fog and speculation around tariffs.

Focusing on what’s known

All else equal, tariffs will likely act as a drag to economic growth and push goods inflation higher. The U.S. economy is less reliant on trade than those of its trading partners, with trade accounting for 25% of gross domestic product (GDP) versus about 70% for Mexico and Canada.² Although the U.S. is more insulated from a trade war, it may still experience weaker growth. The potentially stagflationary impact has spooked investors and has contributed to the first 10% correction in a year and half.¹

Rather than chasing headlines, investors can focus on what’s known: The fundamental drivers of market performance remain more supportive than harmful. Here are five reasons why trade developments may not derail the expansion.

1. Corporate profits are rising, which is not what tends to happen when the economy is about to enter a recession. While S&P 500 earnings estimates for the full year have been revised lower over the last couple of months, they still point to more than 10% growth, which is faster than the long-term historical average of 6%–7%.³
2. Unemployment remains low, and the private sector continues to add jobs at a healthy pace, above the 100,000–120,000 needed to keep up pace with labor force growth. Government layoffs will apply some downward pressure to payroll growth, but federal employees account for only 2% of total employment.³
3. The Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach, but officials are still projecting two rate cuts this year. Upside risks to inflation and rising consumer inflation expectations may keep the Fed on a prolonged pause. However, policy is considered restrictive, and the bar for rate hikes is high. Historically, it is aggressive Fed tightening that ends bull markets.
4. The policy agenda may soon shift to pro-growth measures. A lot of the focus early in the year has been on trade and efforts to constrain government spending. However, the administration may start shifting its attention to more market-friendly policies, which are taking longer to implement. Pro-growth policies such as tax cuts and deregulation are key parts of the proposed policy mix and can potentially support growth and the budding recovery in manufacturing.
5. Credit spreads for high-yield bonds, which are sensitive to economic growth and often tend to provide a leading warning ahead of economic trouble, remain narrow, not raising any red flags. And more broadly, financial conditions are supportive, while loan demand appears to be picking up.¹

Portfolio implications

With trade uncertainty lingering in the months ahead, a V-shaped rebound in stocks appears less likely. However, if economic and earnings growth remains positive as we expect, history suggests pullbacks can be opportunities. Investor sentiment has soured because of the trade uncertainty, leaving room for potentially positive surprises if developments are not as bad as feared. Therefore, we reiterate our slight overweight to equities relative to bonds across portfolio objectives.

Looking closer at portfolio positioning, last year’s underperforming asset classes (international equities), style (value) and sectors (health care) have led the way this year. This rotation could continue, but the range of outcomes remains wide. An escalating trade war could strengthen the dollar, weigh on global growth, and trigger a rotation back to the U.S. On the flip side, a more targeted approach to tariffs and successful negotiations would support the performance of international stocks.

We recommend balance between growth and value investments, and see opportunities in health care and financials, which are less exposed to tariff uncertainty and have attractive valuations. Financials may also benefit from any pro-growth policies.

At the end of the day, portfolio diversification will likely be critical for investors to navigate this year’s twists and turns, while balance with fixed-income investments can offset some of the periodic equity volatility.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA
Investment Strategist

^{Sources: 1. Bloomberg, 2. World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, Eurostat, 3. FactSet}
 

Weekly market stats

^{Source: FactSet, 3/28/2025. Bonds represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF. Past performance does not guarantee future results. *4-day performance ending on Thursday.}

The week ahead

Important economic releases this week include the ISM Manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls report.

Review last week's weekly market update.