- Stocks tick higher ahead of tomorrow's inflation report: Stocks logged modest gains on Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.1% while the Nasdaq logged a 0.3% gain.* The consumer discretionary and real estate sectors of the S&P 500 were today's top performers, while the defensive consumer staples sector lagged.* On the economic front, initial jobless claims came in slightly lower than consensus expectations, while headline durable goods orders rose by 0.1% in May, above expectations for no change.* Overseas, Asian markets were mostly lower overnight in response to sluggish industrial profit growth in China, while European markets finished lower following a lower-than-expected eurozone economic-sentiment reading.* Bond yields ticked down today, with the 10-year Treasury yield finishing just below the 4.3% mark, while the 2-year yield closed around 4.72%.* In the commodity space, oil prices closed higher, rising to just below $82 per barrel, while gold prices rose by 1%.* Looking ahead, market focus will shift to inflation data, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation out tomorrow.
- Markets eye inflation data and its implications on monetary policy: Market focus will shift to inflation with the release of PCE inflation for May out tomorrow morning. Expectations are for headline PCE to be flat on a month-over-month basis and rise by 2.6% year-over-year.* Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is expected to rise by a modest 0.1% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. Earlier this month, consumer price index and producer price index inflation came in lower than expectations, providing markets with confidence that the trend in inflation remains lower after three consecutive months of higher-than-expected inflation readings to begin the year. In response, markets are now pricing in roughly two Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in 2024 compared with only one at the end of April.** In our view, two rate cuts from the Fed in 2024 are a reasonable expectation but far from a certainty. In order to gain the confidence necessary to begin lowering rates, we expect the Fed will need to see several more consecutive months of lower inflation data. Perhaps more important to markets than the exact timing of rate cuts is the direction of policy rates, which we expect will be lower over the coming years. In our view, a multiyear rate-cutting cycle from the Fed in the absence of a recession should be supportive to stock and bond markets.
- Jobless claims hold steady: Initial jobless claims for last week were 233,000, below expectations for 235,000 and below the prior reading of 239,000.* With today's reading, the four-week moving average rose to 236,000, which, while low by historical standards, is the highest reading since September 2023.* The modest uptick in jobless claims is consistent with our view that labor-market conditions will loosen in the months ahead. We would, however, reiterate that while we expect the labor market to cool, we don't expect a meaningful uptick in firing or unemployment. Rather, we'd expect the strong pace of job creation in recent months to potentially slow as the imbalance between supply and demand for labor normalizes. A healthy albeit easing labor market should provide support to consumer spending and help extend the economic expansion.
Brock Weimer, CFA
Associate Analyst
*FactSet **Bloomberg
- Stocks close mostly higher: Equity markets finished modestly higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.2% and the Nasdaq rising by 0.5%. Sector leadership was narrow, with the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500 gaining roughly 2%, driven by strong gains in Tesla and Amazon, while most other sectors finished flat to lower.* Overseas, Asian markets closed higher overnight, while European markets closed lower following a consumer-confidence reading from Germany that was lower than consensus expectations.* On the corporate front, shares of FedEx closed higher by over 15% in response to strong earnings results after the market close yesterday, with the company exceeding earnings estimates for the quarter.* Treasury yields finished higher, with the 10-year yield ticking up to above the 4.3% mark, while the 2-year Treasury yield was little changed at around 4.75%.*
- Large-cap stocks and bonds are tracking for another positive month: With only two trading days left in June, U.S. large-cap stocks and investment-grade bonds are following up a strong performance in May with more gains this month. The S&P 500 is higher by roughly 3.7% this month, aided by ongoing strength in mega-cap technology stocks.** The information technology and communication services sectors have both risen by over 5.5% this month and are the only two sectors outperforming the broader S&P 500 month-to-date.** Looking down the market-cap, returns have been less favorable for small- and mid-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 Index lower by 2.2% for the month and the Russell Mid-cap Index lower by 0.6%. On the fixed-income side, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is higher for the month by roughly 1.7%.** Bond returns have been boosted by a pullback in Treasury yields stemming from a lower-than-expected U.S. inflation reading earlier this month. The 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back from roughly 4.5% at the end of May to around the 4.3% mark today.*
- Housing data in focus: Housing-market data is back in focus today with the release of new home sales for May. New home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 619,000 in May, modestly below expectations for 648,000.* The median sales price of new homes in May was $417,400, which was below the April reading of $433,500. Despite higher borrowing costs and selling prices near all-time highs, new home sales have fared reasonably well, with the May reading of 619,000 only moderately below the 10-year average of about 640,000.* However, existing home sales, which were released last Friday, have shown meaningful weakness in the face of higher borrowing costs. Last week's data showed that existing home sales were at a 4.1 million annualized rate in May, well below the 10-year average of roughly 5.3 million and lower by 0.7% from the prior month, marking the third consecutive month-over-month decline.* We'd equate the divergence between new and existing home sales to existing homeowners showing reluctance to put their homes on the market and forfeit lower mortgage rates that were locked in at lower rates. This reaction from homeowners is also evidenced in the inventory of existing homes for sale, which is at the low end of its 10-year range, compared with new homes for sale, which have risen steadily over the past year. Tight housing inventory has likely been a driving factor behind the resilience in home prices despite higher borrowing costs and lower home affordability. To the degree that lower interest rates bring additional supply of housing to the market in the form of existing homes for sale, potential rate cuts from the Fed could potentially slow the pace of rising home prices.
Brock Weimer, CFA
Associate Analyst
*FactSet **FactSet, total return in local currency through 6/25/2024
- Stock indexes finished mixed as technology remains the guide – After the major averages finished mixed on Monday, stocks produced a similar encore on Tuesday, but this time with tech gains helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to a positive close, while the Dow gave back 300 points, thanks to declines in Home Depot and Walmart shares. Cyclical and defensive areas outperformed on Monday, but today's leadership came from a rebound in technology and communication services stocks, a rather common theme in 2024. NVIDIA, which briefly became the largest market-cap company in the world last week, had fallen more than 15% from that peak before posting a solid gain Tuesday. Nevertheless, enthusiasm around AI has been a powerful driver of market gains over the last several months, with the Nasdaq up 18% and the S&P 500 rising more than 14% year-to-date. Looking across markets, commodities were weaker, with gold declining and oil prices down more than 1% to close just above $80 per barrel. Bonds are essentially flat on the day, keeping the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.25%. The 10-year rate started June near 4.6%, but softer inflation and jobs data have put some downward pressure on yields in recent weeks. *
- Sector check shows shifting leadership – The case for sector diversification remains strong, as leaders and laggards have rotated amid the progressing outlook for economic growth and Fed policy moves. Year-to-date, the best performers are technology (+26%), communication services (+25%), utilities, financials and energy (each up roughly 11%). This reflects the significant momentum behind the AI trend while also demonstrating a broadening of leadership into both cyclical and defensive sectors, consistent with our view coming into the year that gains would widen beyond just mega-cap tech (the "Magnificent 7"). Performance over the last month reflects a shift in the macroeconomic landscape, as data have shown some emerging softness, notably in consumer activity. Over the last month, a pullback in tech has narrowed its lead, with real estate, consumer discretionary, communication services and health care also making up the best sector performers. Cyclicals, like financials and industrials, have lagged a bit in June as markets adjust to the prospects of slower economic growth. Nevertheless, equity markets continue to perform well of late, as the signs of moderating consumer demand also bring the prospects of slowing inflation and support for an upcoming Fed rate cut. **
- Housing prices remain firm – The latest reading on the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed that housing prices rose by 7.2% year-over-year, with the month-over-month change increasing to 0.4% from a 0.3% pace in the prior month. There are two sides to this story: 1. Home prices are still rising at a pace that is challenging to the falling inflation outlook. Shelter prices have been persistent in an otherwise favorable trend in inflation, and this data suggest this condition is not changing rapidly. We suspect the lack of housing supply is a key contributor here, with existing homeowners reluctant to give up their low-rate mortgage that would come with listing their home. 2. On the other hand, this was the lowest rate of home-price appreciation seen in four months and the first decline in the annual rate (it was 7.4% in the prior month) in a year, telling us that high mortgage rates and tight monetary policy may be beginning to bite. We don't expect a sharp decline in home-price appreciation, but we do think shelter price pressures (homes and rents) will moderate as we progress through 2024, providing some more flexibility to the Fed to pursue rate cuts later in the year.
Craig Fehr, CFA
Investment Strategy
*FactSet ** FactSet, S&P 500 GICs level 1 sector total returns.
- Markets finish mixed as tech lags – Equity-market trends diverged today, with the Dow gaining 0.7% but the Nasdaq retreating 1%. Last week NVIDIA had its first down week since April and dropped 6% today, as investors rotated out of technology after a strong run in the past two months. However, the stock, which sits at the epicenter of AI development and excitement, remains up 9% in June and 142% so far this year*. The energy, utilities and consumer staples sectors all rose more than 1%*. International markets were also mixed, with European equities broadly higher, led by autos, and Asian stocks lower ahead of inflation data in Australia and Japan later this week. The U.S. dollar retreated from three-month highs against other major currencies, and Treasury bond yields were little changed*.
- Inflation and politics in focus this week - The economic calendar is light this week, with the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE inflation (personal consumption expenditures price index), on Friday being the highlight. Based on the already released consumer and producer prices, the expectation is that inflation will continue to ease, allowing the Fed to deliver the first rate cut of this cycle after the summer. Core PCE could slow to a 0.1% gain in May, its slowest pace this year, driving the annual rate of inflation down to 2.6%. If achieved, that would be the slowest year-over-year pace since March 2021*. Markets are currently pricing in a 64% chance of a September rate cut followed by another one in December*. We think this is a realistic path, but only assuming that the next three inflation readings that precede the September FOMC meeting continue to show moderation, with prices likely needing to increase at a 0.2% or lower monthly pace. Regardless of whether the Fed cuts one or two times this year, the bigger picture is that the Fed will likely be embarking on a multiyear rate-cutting cycle to normalize policy. Investors will also be paying attention to politics this week. The first U.S. presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is on Thursday, and the first voting round of the French parliamentary election is on Sunday.
- June set to extend gains amid narrow leadership - With a few days to go, June is on track to cap another positive month, adding to this year's strength in equities. However, the gains in the second quarter have been lopsided, with AI-related stocks and mega-cap tech driving most of the upside. The top-10 stocks by market capitalization in the S&P 500 now account for 37% of the index, making the index the most concentrated it has been over the past 30 years*. To us the increasing concentration highlights two things. First, that innovation is alive and well, as AI development has the potential to increase productivity across different sectors of the economy. The strong earnings growth of the companies that are enabling the development of AI supports the outperformance of mega-cap tech. But a second and equally important point is that diversification matters, as it can help manage portfolio risk if one investment style falls out of favor. The rally in tech may be due for a breather, and we continue to see catchup potential in other parts of the market. As positive earnings momentum broadens to other sectors in the back half of the year and the Fed delivers its first rate cut, market leadership may broaden as well.
Angelo Kourkafas, CFA
Investment Strategist
*FactSet